Adam Francis reflects on Jason Fox, Mike Kydd and what resilience, export data and changing trade conditions mean for Scotch whisky in 2026.
I recently had the opportunity to spend time with Jason “Foxy” Fox at the Catalyst ERP and Bottle ERP Spirits Leaders Event 2026 in Edinburgh, discussing resilience, leadership and the importance of having a clear strategy when conditions become challenging.
Held at The Scotch Whisky Experience, the event brought together leaders from across the spirits industry to discuss technology, collaboration, supply, demand and the future direction of Scotch whisky. Jason delivered the opening keynote, while Mike Kydd later joined Sam A’Bear for The Whisky Cycle Briefing, examining where the market may be heading and how businesses should position themselves for what comes next.
As the Founder and Managing Director of Whisky Solutions, these conversations felt particularly relevant.
The Scotch whisky industry has experienced a demanding period. Export markets have been disrupted, consumer spending has softened, overseas distributors have reduced inventories and confidence across parts of the secondary cask market has weakened.
However, market cycles do not continue in one direction forever.
The question now is whether we have passed through the deepest part of the buyers’ market and are beginning to see the foundations of a stronger recovery.
What Jason Fox Taught Us About Resilience
Jason Fox served for approximately 20 years as a Royal Marine Commando and Special Forces sergeant, including time with the Special Boat Service. Since leaving the military, he has become widely recognised for his work on SAS: Who Dares Wins and for speaking openly about resilience, leadership and performing under pressure.
One of the most memorable frameworks from his presentation was:
The mission. Deliver. Debrief.
It sounds simple, but it contains a powerful lesson for anyone operating in a difficult market.
First, the mission must be clear. You need to understand what you are trying to achieve and why.
Then you must deliver. That means following the strategy with discipline rather than allowing fear, noise or short-term emotion to take control.
Finally, you debrief. You assess what worked, what changed and what must be adapted before moving forward again.
This is what genuine resilience looks like.
Resilience is not pretending that challenging conditions do not exist. It is having the clarity to understand those conditions, the discipline to continue making considered decisions and the flexibility to adjust when new evidence emerges.
That principle applies directly to the Scotch whisky market.
The Scotch Whisky Market Reset
Scotch whisky experienced extraordinary export growth following the pandemic, with exports reaching a record £6.2 billion in 2022.
That exceptional performance was followed by a period of normalisation. In 2023, export values remained strong but moved back from the record high. Further pressure followed during 2024 and 2025 as producers faced weaker consumer demand, rising costs and disruption across major international markets.
The Scotch Whisky Association reported that exports were worth approximately £5.3 billion in 2025, with the equivalent of 1.34 billion bottles shipped around the world. This represented a 1.8% reduction in value and a 4.3% reduction in volume compared with 2024.
Those figures demonstrate that the industry has faced genuine challenges.
However, they also show the continuing global scale of Scotch whisky. Even during a difficult year, approximately 43 bottles were exported every second to markets around the world.
The market did not disappear. It reset.
For buyers, that reset created an opportunity. Greater availability, softer pricing and reduced competition meant purchasers could take more time, negotiate more carefully and focus on quality.
In my view, the strongest buyers’ market conditions may now be beginning to pass.
Mike Kydd and the Importance of Long-Term Supply
The contribution from Mike Kydd offered another important perspective.
Mike has spent decades working within Scotch whisky supply, inventory management and long-term demand planning. In a previous role at Diageo, his team was responsible for managing the company’s maturing Scotch and rum inventory, selecting casks, preparing blends and matching stock levels with projected future demand.
At the time of his Whisky Shop interview, Diageo held more than 10 million casks of maturing spirit in Scotland and was adding or removing more than one million casks from its inventory each year.
That scale demonstrates how complex whisky supply really is.
A producer cannot wait for demand for 12-year-old whisky to rise and then manufacture more immediately. The spirit needed in the future must already have been distilled and left to mature years earlier.
Mike captured the challenge perfectly:
“It’s always better to be looking at casks in the warehouse than looking for casks.”
Whisky businesses must constantly balance two risks.
Producing too much can create oversupply during slower periods. Producing too little can leave brands unable to satisfy demand when markets recover.
This is why the whisky market moves in cycles. Periods of increased production and strong demand are often followed by stock adjustments and reduced filling. Those reductions can then influence the availability of mature whisky many years later.
Are Scotch Whisky Exports Beginning to Recover?
There are now early signs that movement through the whisky supply chain may be improving.
An analysis of first-quarter 2026 Scotch whisky export data reported that bulk exports exceeded eight million nine-litre case equivalents. This was approximately 700,000 cases higher than the comparable period in 2025 and represented the highest first-quarter bulk-export level identified in the analysis.
One quarter does not confirm that a full recovery or boom cycle has begun.
Bulk-export figures also do not represent final consumer sales on their own. They can reflect stock movements between producers, bottlers, blenders and overseas operators.
Nevertheless, export pull is an important indicator.
Market recoveries often begin quietly. Overseas inventories reduce, importers start ordering again, bottlers require more stock and demand gradually begins tightening around suitable casks.
By the time the wider market becomes confident that conditions have improved, the most attractive buying period may already have passed.
The latest figures therefore provide a reason for cautious optimism.
They suggest that the market may be moving from correction, through stabilisation and towards the early stages of recovery.
Could Whisky Be Heading Towards Another Boom Cycle?
It would be premature to claim that another whisky boom is guaranteed.
The industry still faces significant economic, regulatory and geopolitical challenges. Consumer demand remains uneven and different distilleries, categories and export markets will recover at different speeds.
However, several conditions are becoming more encouraging.
India continued to grow during 2025, becoming the third-largest Scotch whisky export market by value and remaining the largest by volume. China imported a greater volume of Scotch, while markets including Turkey, Spain, Germany and the UAE also recorded value growth.
The Q1 2026 bulk-export figures provide a further indication that activity may be returning.
Rather than claiming the market has already entered a new boom, I believe the more realistic first stage would be a return towards the stronger trading conditions seen in 2023.
If export pull continues, overseas inventories normalise and bottler demand increases, that recovery could eventually develop into a wider growth cycle.
The recent record year was 2022. A genuine new boom would therefore mean the industry moving back towards, or eventually beyond, those exceptional export levels.
We are not there yet.
But the direction of travel appears more encouraging than it did during the most difficult part of the correction.
Resilience Means Preparing Before Confidence Returns
The lesson I took away from Jason Fox was not to ignore risk or assume that difficult conditions will automatically improve.
It was to remain clear, disciplined and prepared.
In the Scotch whisky market, that means focusing on the fundamentals:
Quality spirit, credible provenance, appropriate acquisition prices, professional storage, realistic holding periods and a clear understanding of who may eventually purchase the stock.
It also means resisting the temptation to react emotionally to short-term market sentiment.
During a boom, buyers can feel pressure to act because everybody else is buying.
During a downturn, they can feel pressure to stop because everybody else has become cautious.
The strongest strategy is rarely found at either extreme.
It comes from understanding the cycle, studying the evidence and making carefully considered decisions before the opportunity becomes obvious to the wider market.
Final Thoughts
The Catalyst Spirits Leaders Event brought together two powerful perspectives.
Jason Fox demonstrated how resilience, preparation and clear leadership allow people to perform under pressure.
Mike Kydd demonstrated why the Scotch whisky industry must plan years and decades ahead when balancing production, mature inventory and future demand.
Together, those lessons are highly relevant to the current market.
Scotch whisky has been through a difficult correction. However, improving export pull and growth within several important international markets suggest that the foundations of a recovery may now be forming.
The buyers’ market may not have completely disappeared, but the window could be beginning to narrow.
The businesses and buyers best positioned for the next phase will be those who remained disciplined during the downturn, focused on quality and prepared before wider confidence returned.
Because resilience is not simply surviving challenging conditions.
It is using those conditions to prepare for the opportunity that follows.
Whisky cask ownership is long-term and illiquid. Values can rise or fall, and future performance cannot be guaranteed. Appropriate due diligence and professional advice should always be obtained before purchasing.